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Compound-Hazard Intelligence

Most climate models see one storm. We model what it triggers next.

Perilyx AI simulates the cascades — flood into fire, heat into grid failure, wind into landslide — that single-peril models miss, giving insurers and infrastructure operators months to years of lead time.

6.2M+ parcels scored nightly across active regions
41% of compound losses missed by single-peril models in backtests
18mo max forward horizon on cascade probability
3 reinsurers piloting Perilyx loss-triage in 2026
The problem

The second event is the one that breaks the model.

Underwriting today treats wildfire, flood, heat, and wind as separate line items. But real losses compound: a wet spring grows fuel that a dry summer burns; a burn scar turns an ordinary storm into a debris-flow event two winters later. Single-peril models are blind to the sequence.

Sequential exposure

One hazard changes the ground truth for the next — vegetation, saturation, structural integrity, grid load. We track state, not snapshots.

Correlated portfolios

Compound cascades cluster losses across a book in ways diversification assumptions don't anticipate. We surface the correlation before renewal.

Silent lead time

Most cascade windows are visible 6–18 months out in soil, canopy, and grid telemetry — if you're modeling the chain and not just the event.

How it works

A simulation engine built on physics, not just history.

We don't extrapolate from historical loss tables alone — we run GPU-accelerated neural PDE solvers over live climate, satellite, and IoT inputs to simulate how hazards physically propagate through terrain, vegetation, and infrastructure.

01

Fuse live sensing

Satellite soil moisture, canopy density, grid load telemetry, and NOAA forecast ensembles are ingested continuously at parcel resolution.

02

Simulate the chain

Our neural PDE solvers propagate a primary hazard forward and estimate the state changes — fuel load, saturation, structural stress — that shape secondary hazard probability.

03

Score and route

Cascade probability, expected severity, and lead time are scored per parcel and delivered into underwriting, claims triage, or grid-hardening workflows via API.

"We stopped asking 'what's the wildfire risk on this parcel' and started asking 'what does this parcel look like eighteen months after the wildfire.' That's a different question, and it's the one that actually predicts our losses."

Built for

Three buyers, one cascade model.

Insurers & Reinsurers

Portfolio-level correlation scoring and loss-triage models that flag compound exposure before renewal, not after a claim.

Utilities

Grid-hardening prioritization that accounts for cascading ignition and load-failure risk across service territory.

Public Agencies

Resilience planning models for FEMA-aligned mitigation grants, built on the same cascade engine used by carriers.

See your book of business run through the cascade engine.

A working session with our science team — no slideware, real portfolio data, run against the live model.

Request a briefing